Horse Racing Results 4 March 2024

They are 0 from 22, though then nine-year-old Whisper nearly benefited from Might Bite’s errant course up the hill last year in the RSA Chase. It is worth noting that nine of those 22 were priced at 7/1 or shorter. That would have netted 36 winners from 180 runners (20% strike rate, 69% race win strike rate) and a level stakes profit of 46.48 points at Starting Price. Moreover, the approach was profitable in eight of the ten years, exceptions being 2016 and 2009.

Relegate wins the Champion Bumper

KARMOLOGY looks the solid option in this competitive fillies’ handicap. She’s usually very consistent but never showed up at Yarmouth last time. Her earlier form is very useful and she can give weight and a beating to her rivals. The selection has no room for error off top-weight, but no one rides the straight course at Ascot better than Spencer. The micro-systems above will provide plenty of action for those who like a mechanical approach.

• Her main market rival that day fell at the last as Epatante was looming upsides, but she looked to have had him covered at that point.
• That quality continues on Sunday with a good card at Carlisle containing two Listed races and we also have Huntingdon.
• Only time will tell, but you have to expect the Irish to come out on top overall once more.
• If you think that the odds might shift and change before the start of the race, you could consider opting for the starting price.
• That was even more commendable because it was her first start since May.

About Bangor-on-Dee Racecourse

What is worth noting, however, is that 11 of the last 14 winners had raced fewer than ten times over fences and interestingly nine of the last 12 winners had worn some king of headgear (cheekpieces, hood or blinkers). Five of the last 13 winners had run in the Ultima Handicap the previous year. Willie Mullins naturally saddles a phalanx of blue bloods, and his first choice normally wins. Indeed, going back to Ebazayin, a 40/1 scorer for Mullins in 2007, that was his only – and therefore first choice – entry.

Ascot Tips

I’m not totally sold on Stattler for all that he can obviously win. Run Wild Fred looks the one, especially with the striking booking of Jamie Codd. And last year’s Albert Bartlett winner, Vanillier, must also be a contender on that evidence though not on much evidence since. Nicky Henderson saddles Marie’s Rock, who ran a nice race without troubling the judge in the Greatwood Hurdle in November. Subsequently stepped up to this range, she won either side of a non-completion when badly hampered by a faller.

Queen Mother Champion Chase full result

It’s fair to say that the Tizzard stable was in poor form at that moment and is firing much better now; if that was a factor in War Lord’s defeat, he might be over-priced. Want to oppose Sir Gerhard who is inexperienced over fences and would probably be running over shorter if trained by anyone else than Willie. Thunder Rock could be an ‘in running’ play if he’s travelling well in the first mile. Of the big prices, Coolvalla has nothing like the ratings to be in the shake up at this level. And yet, he’s won handicap chases by 19 lengths and 17 lengths the last twice, has proven stamina, jumps well, and comes here nicely rested. The four miler is not quite the race it was, and not just because it’s only three miles and six furlongs in distance these days.

They’re away in the Novices’ Chase

Taking 4-1 as an example, a successful £1 bet would yield a return of £5 – the £4 winnings plus the stake. A horse with a string of 1s by their name is likely to be a lot shorter in the betting than one with 0s, for example. Fresh always runs his race but may lack a yard of pace these days. Two Tempting finished ahead of a few of these at Chester and is always underestimated in the betting.

Oh, and Happy St. Paddy’s Day!

Although she hasn’t been at her best this season, she was a 9 ½ length runner-up to Lossiemouth in the International Hurdle here (2m 1f) last time. We know she seems to thrive at the Festival and the fitting of first-time cheekpieces could improve her performance against Lossiemouth. Lossiemouth’s Bolts Up Daily nearest market rival, stablemate Ashroe Diamond, boasts an impressive record of five wins from six starts against her own sex. If the favourite falters due to stamina, Ashroe Diamond could capitalize, although the fitting of a first-time hood for a return to 2m 4f would be a slight concern.

talkSPORT betting tips – Best bets and expert advice for Saturday at Wetherby

The best bet of Wednesday runs in the hardest race of the day. The Fred Winter is like a game of poker with trainers keeping all sorts of tricks up their sleeves with these inexperienced horses. His trainer, Brian Ellison, had the third in this race last year with Nietzsche and I sense The King Of May is a far better horse than him. Brian does not say much but when he does speak, you listen. He’s a very shrewd trainer who has Definitely Red in the Gold Cup. With the more recent addition of betting apps, it has become easier than ever before for punters to back a horse.

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In that context, Shishkin – who has won all of his completed starts, by 8L, 11L, 11L, a neck, 23L, 13L, and 8.5L – looks very fairly priced at 10/3 to win the Arkle by six lengths or more. His trainer is having a wobble just now but knows better than anyone – even Willie M – how to campaign a precocious two-mile chaser. Having ticked the race conditions boxes, and with a pace setup almost certain to play to his A game, he looks a ‘banker’ (relatively speaking). Plenty to chew on in the above ahead of what looks an open and fascinating betting puzzle.

Timeform

Ontheropes is a slight rarity in that he’s a Cheveley Park Stud entry, and trained by Willie Mullins, that is not favourite. He has had plenty of experience, however, which is definitely the way to go in the National Hunt Chase, and breeding suggests this trip is within range. The form of his fourth in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury in the autumn is strong and if quicker ground ekes out a pound or two, he could cause a minor surprise. He’s undeniably well treated, then, but hitting a serious flat spot on heavy ground doesn’t translate brilliantly to the rough and tumble of a fast ground 22-runner charge across Cleeve Hill.

30 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

Clearly not right when reopposing Jango Baie in that G1 he was pulled up on the soft ground there before beating the geegeez.co.uk syndicate horse Dartmoor Pirate into second at Huntingdon last time. The Pirate has since run a mighty fourth of 17 in the famously competitive EBF Final last Saturday, with Pauling novices filling out the first two places there! Tellherthename was withdrawn from the Betfair Hurdle on account of the ground and connections will want it to dry out as much as possible for their charge. With the forecast being for persistent drizzle and light rain, official going of soft is a very short price. Gordon Elliott has won six of the last seven (one of them under the pseudonym Denise Foster) Festival cross country races and has an iron grip on a bid for a seventh. And yet it’s Henry de Bromhead who saddles the ante post favourite, Minella Indo.

Paul Kealy’s five-step guide to finding a winner

Ardkilly Witness is suited by this track and is expected to run Rathlin Rose very close. But I would want the insurance of something closer to an each way price before getting too involved. Ardkilly Witness has a 5lb pull in the weights with Rathlin Rose on their C/D form from three weeks ago, when Rathlin Rose won pretty comfortably. A ‘Mission Impossible’ handicap to finish off the festival. Native River needs to improve and in my view is too short in the market. Djakadam and Outlander have little between them on form in Ireland.

Strike rates are below what is the 14/1+ norm for all National Hunt races and losses have been significant. Indeed, Irish runners have outperformed UK runners in terms of win strike rate in the last ten festivals starting from 2013 as the graph below neatly illustrates. These figures are skewed inasmuch as the last five years have seen a big increase in the number of Irish horses travelling across. However, the win strike rate for Irish runners in the five years from 2008 to 2012 was 6.8%, whereas in the past five years (2018 to 2022) it has been 9.7%.

Exhibit A to that end are the two races – both comfortable victories, in Grade 2 and Grade 1 company – in one month, the final month of last year. If that’s the good news, the less good news is that Exhibit B must likely follow this weekend at the (outright excellent) Dublin Racing Festival; and Exhibit C requires him to cross the Irish channel in mid-March sans sicknote. Any horse could come down or have a heart murmur in the heat of combat; Shishkin could get beaten by Energumene; a previously unsighted dark horse could emerge in one of the novice chases (though that feels unlikely). Unlike CPS, EA has been slated to start twice and has started – and finished first – twice. He’s had an incident-free prep thus far and has jumped really well in his three chase races to date.

If you’d had the proverbial crystal ball and been able to predict every front-runner at HQ since 2009, you’d have been on to a very good thing as you can see from the table below, taken from geegeez’ Query Tool. ‘4’ signifies an early front runner, ‘3’ a prominent racer early, ‘2’ a midfield runner, and ‘1’ a hold up type. This particular race was won by the unexposed, and still unbeaten – now in three races – Hickory, who was a class above his rivals. As the result shows, he was good enough to travel on the heels of the speed, while the placed horses came from far back, even though typically this course and distance favours front-runners (see the green blob above the pace map).

The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Ayr, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Ayr last time out. How competitive is the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 13 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2022 when the race had an over-round of 111%.

Saratoga Tips

Can win a well-deserved Group 1 in the Sun Chariot Stakes. Back a horse by clicking their odds – and check out our man’s Arc de Triomphe ante-post tips with Member’s Enclosure. Fourthly, beware Paul Nicholls outside of handicap hurdles, and Charlie Longsdon and Noel Meade universally. Thirdly, cheekpieces have been more about futility than utility outside of handicap chases. But we all know that there’s nothing really of use in this section. The handicap chases are a crap shoot and, in negative elimination factor terms, should be avoided at all costs.

• SH – Betting each way at shortish prices is not for everyone, but Banbridge will surely be hard to keep out of the frame and has a solid win chance, too.
• Maintaining a betting log aids in tracking your bets effectively, especially when engaging in diverse markets like international races.
• Supported by a valuable card at Ascot and a return to Ayr.
• These older lads and lasses are now 0 from 24, though Faugheen looks a live chance in a novice chase, probably the Marsh (former JLT) this time around.
• Of the 964 runners in such races in the past ten years, 842 (87%) were aged five to eight (ignoring the Fred Winter).
• Only 19 have shown up but, while they have failed to win, they have recorded an impressive five placed efforts (26.32% place rate vs 18.18% for the boys).
• The exclusive preview will be despatched this afternoon and by signing up now you will get your membership ready for tomorrow.

Promising start chasing home Masekela on debut but pitched into the deep end in Group company at Ascot in June and failed to fire again at Newmarket next time out; back to form beaten a length over C&D; gelded since so can improve again. Third of the four runners during the early stages, Rebel’s Romance challenged entering the final quarter mile and lengthened up the hill to beat stablemate Kemari by a convincing three and three-quarter lengths. A reproduction of that form may well suffice here, with Kemari, Regal Reality and Max Vega taken to fight it out for the minor medals. Luke Harvey, who is the perfect height to get a close view of these things, tells me that Altior’s foot problem can be skipped over, and it is fantastic news that we will see that horse go head-to-head with Douvan. MAHLER MISSION looks a bit of value as the 4m 2d trip and whatever ground he encounters should be fine.

Naturally, betting shops – and bookmaker websites and apps – also show all the action. It is also possible to watch races on your phone, tablet or computer screen by logging on to a bookmaker account and streaming via the Racing Post website or mobile app. Every single race every day can be seen live on Sky Sports Racing (free on Sky channel 415) and Racing TV (a subscription channel on Sky 424). Yes, it has its own language, and some find that intimidating, but please do not worry.

14/1 looks a very playable each way proposition, with the NRNB proviso. It is also true that RP has been dishing up in deep ground and it remains to be seen how he handles quicker terrain. For all of those reservations, he has been ultra-impressive visually, and his stamina combined with fluent jumping makes him a natural for a staying test like this. There are other credible contenders in the field, not least Galvin, but if Royale Pagaille lines up here rather than his other entries, he’ll take some beating.

It’s worth recalling that she was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles at Aintree last April, and it’s typical of Lucinda Russell’s horses to only show their very best form in the spring. O’Connor rides Corbett’s Cross, who was a big talking horse before running out here last year, and he was brought down in his prep race for this when the rider was given his traditional ‘feeler’ at Fairyhouse. He has a chance, for sure, but is of no great interest at around 2/1 given his imperfect preparation.

Each way is not an option in a seven-runner race generally, still less with such a domineering jolly; but ‘without the favourite’ is a way in. That market has its own shortie, too, in State Man but I feel Vauban ‘without’ is a credible alternative given how the race is likely to pan out. If State Man and Constitution Hill have at it from far enough out, it’s possible that SM cracks; Vauban wasn’t far behind him in steadily enough run G1’s in Ireland and can come through for silver. The first chase of the week is a speed test for novices, and frequently advertises the claims of a potential Champion Chaser of the near future.

It was a fourth Champion Chase for Henderson since Finian’s Rainbow broke his duck in the race in 2012 and his 60th winner in all at the meeting. Horses of a lifetime, it seems, are like London buses for the trainer these days and if he becomes the first trainer to win Cheltenham’s big three races in the Gold Cup on Friday, Might Bite might be considered another. A lot more returns and respective debuts throughout the week before we got to the season openers at Cheltenham and Aintree. After all the hard work there was just the one bet for us which was successful. It can be seen as frustrating to have put in all that work but also rewarding in the long term to have amassed a great deal of valuable future information.

Among a clutch of lightly raced juveniles, Bolt Action, Kaasib and Paddy’s Day all merit a second look. A short-head Wolverhampton maiden victor in November, Fast Company’s son made his return for 2022 in the Listed Burradon Stakes on Newcastle’s All-Weather Championships Finals card in April. Simply register, place you £10 bet on horse racing and you will receive £30 in free bets. The four-year-old grey has improved this season, winning a Listed race at Doncaster and the Group 2 bet365 Mile at Sandown, while he was second to Audience in the Lockinge at Newbury last time out.

• O’Connor has been a fine rider over the years but there are no weak links in the riding line-up here, and this race ought to go to the best horse at the trip, pure and simple.
• As I write there are four horses priced at 5/1 or shorter, headed – just – by Gaelic Warrior.
• Full Shift figures on a lenient handicap mark if the first time “cheek-pieces+tongue-tie” have a positive effect.
• If we look at market position data instead, clear favourites in Grade 1 races have just edged into profit, albeit by only £6.77 (ROI +3.6%); backing ALL runners in the top four in the betting would have yielded a profit of £55.24 (ROI +6.8%).
• That might be the ultra-consistent Mister Coffey, who has placed Festival form to his name.
• Kyrov is currently rated 75kg (165), Golden Son 71 (156) and Tanganyika’s mark in France is 61.5 (135).

AND of course this type of favourite can be confidently predicted before the off. Just back the one that’s been given three quiet runs and a mark that’s well below what it’s really capable of. The two I like most are Libberty Hunter and Hardy du Seuil with the former looking really solid in the conditions. He would be unbeaten over fences but for overjumping on debut at Chepstow and has added wins at Wincanton and on the New Course here, beating Arkle hope Matata by a length in a 2m handicap in December. Those wins have come on heavy and soft ground and he coped well with the jumping test when scoring last time. A better question might be to ask which horses can put him under pressure, so let’s posit that one.

Racing against the far rail from a draw in stall one, David Egan got bumped and bored when attempting to get through on the run to the final furlong, just as Raasel swept to the front down the outside. A neck separated the pair at the winning post, with Existent back in fourth and Equilateral, who also had a hard-luck story to tell, fnishing sixth. Roger Varian’s sprinter was unlucky not to take the spoils at Sandown, enduring a troubled passaged over the minimum trip. Raasel was in front that day but the selection has a fine chance of turning the tables. I’ve been quietly backing Tiger Roll all winter to win the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase.

A year earlier, the first of Al Boum Photo’s brace of GC’s, an Irish-trained horse also ran second, with the remaining five raiders faring no better than 8th (three non-completions). Native River beat Might Bite for a British 1-2 in 2018, but prior to that it was Irish eyes smiling in both 2017 and 2016, where Team Green bagged the first four places home. The nearly-four-miler as it has become known is in many ways the bellwether for the meeting and indeed the sport. It’s a really tough heat with even fewer clues than your average Festival handicap.